MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to elevate its annual vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revamped automotive sector plan. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov introduced this target on Aug. 31 during a discussion focusing on the industry’s development. This figure encompasses both domestic market supply and exports. Additionally, the plan aims for an 80% share of locally manufactured vehicles within Russia’s new-vehicle market by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the framework through 2035. At the close of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was roughly 3.3 million units annually. The actual output in that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck and bus utilization rates reached 35% and 43%, respectively.
Under the envisioned scenario, 2035 production targets are set at 2.5 million passenger cars and approximately 170,000 light commercial vehicles. The plan also envisions 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car manufacturing will rely on four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles are expected to be produced on one or two. The total new-vehicle market projection for 2035 is about 3.2 million units, allowing imports to make up to 20% of that total.
Production goals encompass all vehicle categories
The strategy features a conservative scenario with lower production and market size estimates. In this case, vehicle production in 2035 would reach around 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market expected to be roughly 2.2 million units. Conversely, the target scenario projects a 2.4 million units market for 2030, while the base scenario estimates about 2 million vehicles across all segments in that year.
Additionally, the plan emphasizes powertrain and technological goals. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute 67% to 83% of production by 2035, depending on the vehicle type. At least 25% of Russia’s new passenger cars are projected to be electric or hybrid models by then. The strategy also targets the production of approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035. Furthermore, driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems are featured prominently in the framework.
Capacity and localization targets remain key indicators
The current manufacturing capacity in Russia far exceeds its recent annual production figures. Passenger-car capacity was about 2.8 million units in 2025, whereas actual output was near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached roughly 300,000 units, with production around 80,000. Truck capacity stood at approximately 130,000 units, and bus capacity was close to 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced approximately 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy encourages broader adoption of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms up to 2035. It also establishes more ambitious localization and technological independence objectives for domestically assembled vehicles. The plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies. Its scenario combines an annual production goal of 2.8 million units with an 80% market share for domestically produced vehicles. An action plan for implementation must be developed under the order that approved this updated strategy.