ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 will reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record. Despite this downturn, the total is expected to remain the second-largest on record. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the estimate made in July. This decline amounts to 61.1 million tonnes annually and marks the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
Forecasted maize production for 2026 stands at 1.309 billion tonnes, following diminished crop prospects that lowered earlier estimates. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields across major European Union regions, notably France and Poland. In addition, official estimates prompted downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil delivered better-than-expected yields, partially counterbalancing those decreases, with both nations projected to produce well above average maize quantities in 2026.
Wheat production globally is now expected to reach 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the prior forecast. Improved yield outlooks for Canada and Morocco raised projections by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Likewise, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine were revised upward, whereas dry weather reduced expectations for the European Union and United Kingdom. Although these upward adjustments occurred, worldwide wheat output is still estimated to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would rank as the second-largest crop ever recorded.
Maize reductions lead to global cereal forecast cut
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is anticipated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% drop from the adjusted record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate was supported by increased yields in Myanmar and strong main-crop results in Sri Lanka. These gains offset declines in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total global cereal utilization to hit 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a 0.2% rise from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, whereas wheat use is forecast to decrease from last season’s high levels. World rice consumption is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed consumption remains vital, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles remain at historically comfortable levels
At the end of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. This represents a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from the previous projection but an increase of 1.8 million tonnes compared to initial opening levels. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% observed in the previous season. Wheat reserves are projected to rise in Russia and Ukraine, yet lower inventories of maize and barley have tempered the overall stock outlook.
In 2026/27, international trade in cereals is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Although this is a rise, it remains below the record volume of 2025/26. A significant portion of this increase is attributed to stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. For rice, global trade is projected at 60.5 million tonnes in 2026, with overall shipments down 1.9% compared to the 2025 record.